The title of chapter 3 is Pseudoscience. This word has two parts: "Pseudo" meaning false, and "Science" which is an investigation of the world around us. By pseudoscience, then, John Allen Paulos is referring to a false science or a false way of investigating the world around us. One way of engaging in pseudoscience is to use evidence that isn't valid. From this evidence, the pseudo-scientist will come to false conclusions.
In your blog post, pick one example of pseudoscience from the chapter. Then do the following:
1. Explain what counts as evidence for the person who believes the pseudoscience. (correlation, reoccurence, etc.)
2. Explain what John Allen Paulos has to say about this evidence.
3. Describe what would count as real evidence for the situation. (What would be a cause and effect type explanation?)
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Monday, March 9, 2009
Chapter 3
Posted by Mr. Wille at 2:06 PM
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36 comments:
Chapter 3 was really cool to read because im into all this superstition. I think the chance of a dream coming true is definetely pseudoscience. People just have dreams and if its a bad dream they spend their days worrying about if the dream will come true or not and if it was a good dream they sit there wishing it would come true. John Allen Paulos thinks that only 96.4 people in the world have random dreams that do NOT come true but the other 3.6% (which comes out to be a big number even if it seems small) have dreams that reoccur in real life. Paulos thinks that the explanation of how much dreams dont come true is more significant than the probability that dreams do come to life. I think a real evidence for this situation would be, like guessing heads/tails while flipping a coin because the chance of getting either one is 50%. Also, this situation is pretty easy to imagine/perform unlike guessing the number of snowflakes in NYC every year. There's also more of a chance that you can be right.
-Sadichchha A.
ONe example is the horse, Clever Hans____ who was believed to be able to count. THe person believes the Pseudoscience because it appears as if the horse is able to stomp the correct number of times the trainer shows with his fingers. Paulos says that the horse just watches the trainer until he reacts corresponding to the number of stomps Hans has already done. What would be real evidence would be if the horse turned around and actually stomped without having to look at the trainer
Nada G.
One example of pseudo science that I found really interesting is when a doctor tells his patients to consume two whole pizzas, four birch beers, and two pieces of cheesecake for every breakfast, lunch and dinner and an entire box of fig bars with a quart of milk for bedtime snack claiming that other people lost six pounds a week doing this. Several patients then find that they actually gained seven pounds each but this does not necessarily refute the doctor’s claims. He might say that the pizza had too much sauce or the dieters slept 16 hours a day or the birch beer wasn’t the right brand. This is considered to be pseudoscience because you cannot necessarily prove that you will lose weight by doing this but then again you cannot prove it you will not lose weight either. Since there is no solid scientific proof for this, it is considered to be pseudoscience. To the doctor however, what counts as evidence for him are those other people who actually lost weight by doing so. John Allen Paulos believes that one can just find may loop holes which will enable one to hold on to their theory and believe their “evidence”. In this case, the doctor may remark about the amount of sauce being used, how it’s being used, what type is being used etc. thus disallowing one to refute his claims. Something that would count as real evidence is when everyone who tries this method would actually lose weight, if they are all following it the same way.
Candy L.
Pseudoscience is a very interesting thing. Many teenagers belive them. And I use to do too, before I red this book. There's one sentence a strongly agree, "People read into the generally vague astrological pronouncements almost anything they want to....They're also more likely to remember true 'predictions,' overvalue coincidences,and ignore everything else." It's so true that people remember whatever happened that's correct, ignore other stuff, and believe in Pseudoscience. But from chapter 2, the book already inform us about the chances of coincidence, it's actually not so impossible. My favorite example will be the part about comparing the signs of scientists and politicians. The signs varies, which means your talent for science and politics has nothing to do with your birthday, same thing for other subjects also. Whatever you become is the result of your effort, not when you're born.
Benjamin G.
One example of Pseudoscience that John Allen Paulos uses in this chapter is "Numerology," which is an ancient practice of giving each letter a numerical value and then finding significance of the values of certain words. He uses the example of the Hebrew word for "love" (ahava), which has a numerical value of 13, which is the same value as the word "one" (ehad), which can also represent "one God;" people found this important, and this belief was strengthened by the fact that their sum 26 is the numerical value of "Yahweh," the divine name of God.
Paulos tells how this is just another brand of Pseudoscience, and that it has no real significance. He says that "it makes predictions and claims that are almost impossible to falsify since an alternative formulation with what happened is always easy to dream up." What he is saying is that you can't believe Numerology because of the fact that, if something is predicted by it, an incident can be considered what was predicted - it's all a matter of perspective, and how you viewed the incident, therefore Numerology can't ever be fully disproved.
There isn't really anything in Numerology that can be considered "real" evidence. It is just random chance that certain events occur similarly to a prediction based on a numerical value of a word.
My favorite example is when he explains how an innumerate person can misinterpret something as simple as one plus one equals two. Normally this would be correct, but under the example given: "one cup of water plus one cup of popcorn is not equal to two cups of soggy popcorn." Under this assumption one plus one is nonequivalent to two. This shows how innumeracy can be easily used to bend rules.
Trevor L.
Evidence for a person who believes a pseudoscience is proving the statement is not wrong. For instance, ESP, people have seen hazy events that may have happened in the future once say two months. A believed in pseudoscience would say that person has ESP because he saw the future once. Mathematically speaking, that is a fairly high chance because if this person say it in a dream and a person dreams every night 365 days per year, then 1/365 dreaming a prediction that actually might happen in the future is almost impossible not to have someone somewhere have a predictive dream.
John Allen Paulos had to call out this evidence for the most important reason that it cannot be proven. There is no person who can disprove that there is ESP or coincidence. However, nobody has ever proved these coincidences right. In science, a theory is something based on factual evidence that proves the theory. One theory for instance is the theory of evolution. But today, there is so much evidence that contributes to making the point that the evolutionary theory is true and there is really no real proof to prove it false.
Real evidence for any situation is hard, solid proof for whatever is being challenged.
3. Describe what would count as real evidence for the situation. The theories of extraterrestrial life that UFO's were spotted in our atmosphere are most likely false. However, there most likely is extraterrestrial life on another planet. It is estimated that there are about 100 billion stars in our galaxy and 10 billion of those stars could support life. About 100 million of those planets are in the life range of the star as for water to not boil or freeze. Maybe one tenth of those planets may support life. One tenth may already support life right now. So maybe 1 million stars have planets that support life. The reason we don't see marks of this life is because there is so much space that finding this life is near to impossible. Not to mention that since time is relative, a society could have existed on another planet like ours long ago and died out. Maybe another one is on the cycle of evolution and fish may just be going on land.
Keith M.
Pseudosciences are interesting only because they explain alot of how we believe that things such as ESP could be possible, when it is all just coincidences. An example that I found interesting was the betting game of three cards. One with a red-red side, one with a black-black side, and one with a red black side. Many people take up gambling games because they see the odds are in their favor or 50-50 (in which case, they feel lucky). He lets you pick one of the cards out the hat, but you can only see one side. If it is red, the black-black card is eliminated, leaving it to be either the red-red card or the red-black card. The dealer bets money that the card you picked was the red-red card. So that means you have to bet that it is the red-black card. Is this really a fair bet? It seems so, seeing as you have a bet on one card and the dealer has the bet on the other. You are actually being suckered into thinking you have a fair bet, as there is one way you can win, and 2 ways the dealer can win. Here's how it really goes: It is the red side of the red-black card(your win)---or----it is the red side if the red-red card(dealer's win)---Or(a third option) it is the OTHER red side of the red-red card. So after you put your faith in the game you only have a 33 percent chance of winning(which is good, but the coverup that makes it look 50-50 will attract more people playing). It looks 50-50 because you are choosing one card and so is the dealer. But you don't see that you are hoping (since you're money is on the red-black card and the you are looking at is red) that you don't see red on the other side of that card. So far the card is either r-r or r-b. You see one red already. You take an r away, now you're possibilities are r,r, or b. What are the chances of you getting that "b"? 1/3. This shows that the seemingly 50-50 chance of winning a card game really isn't as fair as first thought.
Rondelle B.
I like the example where he asks the an whether e lie astrology or not, and the guy says, "No, I'm a Gemini, and Geminis never believe in astrology." The problem there is that the guy blatantly rejects any belief whatsoever of Astrology, however the states right after that he is a Gemini an even uses that as a reason to say why he doesn't like Astrology. You can't say you don't like astrology and in your answer categorize yourself into one of he groups of Astrology. Its just insane. A real answer would have been, "No, nothing it says happens to be true for me or anyone I know. Thats why I don't believe in astrology.
Nina A.
Chapter 3 of Innumeracy was called Pseudoscience a word meaning false science. My favorite example in this chapter was the one called little ol me and the stars. It was about astrology and how silly it is to believe that the gravitational pull of the stars at the time you were born somehow has an effect on your personality and the events that happen to you in your life. The person who believes this's evidence is that experiments have been performed lately which lean in the direction of astrology being true. John Allen Paulos says that it is absolutely ridiculous to believe in astrology and that is appaling and frightening to think of how many important people have believed it and it is worrysome to think that if they believe in this what else they may believe. I think the only just evidence for a person to believe in this is if every single person in the world has had the exact right personality and has had the exact things happen to them as said for years and years.
Christian J.
In Chapter 3 (Pseudoscience) of the book Innumeracy is about how ridiculous some of the things people consider evidence and science when they are obviously ridiculous. My favorite example is little ol me and the stars. It was written about how astrology is a great example of pseudoscience (pseudo meaning fake and science meaning the study of the world/universe around us). It is crazy how the gravitational pull of the stars at the time you were born has any impact on your life or your personality at all. I found it hilarious the first line. When the other writer says "I'm a Gemini. Gemini dont believe in astrology". That just proves how ridiculous it can be sometimes.
Aleksandar P
Chapter three in "Innumeracy" is about pseudoscience, which means false or fake science. My personal favorite in this chapter is the example with one cup of popcorn and one cup of water. You would think that since there is one cup of each, that when mixed, you would get two cups of wet popcorn, though this is not the case. If you wanted real evidence for this, you could go out and test it, and it probably wouldn't take more than 10 minutes to do, but you could also use logic. Since popcorn is dry, it would probably absorb much of the water and therefore, the water and popcorn would not take up two cups.
Tasia H.
In Chapter 3, one example of pseudoscience is people believing they have psychic powers because something occurs that they have seen in a dream. Paulos proves this wrong by stating that this occurence is just a coincidence. In fact, he believes that this happens to 3.6% of people in the world every year who dream every night. Some good evidence of someone having physchic abilites would be if they were to guess something correctly that they had a very small chance of quessing such as correctly guessing a number between one and 10,000
Emily S.
Chapter 3 was quite interesting to me and this was because of the examples used. My favorite was the way astrology was used and could easily be manipulated. I once asked a relative of my sister if she believed in astrology and horoscopes. She responded, "I try to". This is a great example of how astrology can often make the reader believe that a certain number of events would happen to a person in a certain order simply based on their date of birth. The usual daily horoscope consist of one or more of the following, a financial "prediction", a romantic reference and another long term guidance. The staple "predictions" are mostly vague and can be applied to almost anything that the reader actually can be going through, thus having the reader, who is usually innumerate, believe that their birthday resulted in the planning out of their whole lives.
The actual connection between your date of birth and trivial things like finding money on the floor that day because your horoscope predicted it is, accoriding to Paulos, is non-existant. When the thirty top atrologist were presented with the personality profiles of one hundred sixteen clients, the number of times each astrologer picked the correct personality for each client was one to three. Just chance.
An acceptable example of evidence would be if the astrologers correctly picked the personality profiles for each client.
Tony L.
Pseudoscience is when people assume random preposterous things to be proof of something from science. The example i find most supporting to this and my favorite example is the one about astrology. astrology is the belief of stars and celestial objects or phenomenons are related to your life. people believe that the gravitational pull of a planet has an effect on ones personality. the author seems to believe people believe in this is that " people read into the generally vague astrological pronouncements almost anything they want to, and thus invest them with a truth which is not inherent in the pronouncements themselves". which means that people believe in it because they assume it is true before further thinking about it, just like religion. i find it crazy to base your personality, feelings, etc on celestial bodies. it proves how preposterous astrology can be.
Chapter 3: Pseudoscience
The innumerate with undoubtedly believe in pesudoscience merely because there is no true evidence that suggests against it (except that John Allen Paulos just made the perfect counterargument for the situation I am about to bring up). Most innumerates are susceptible to believe in extraterrestrial life – more than the average person, because, like Paulos mentioned in the first chapter, they haven’t quite got a grasp of large numbers. The evidence of this is given with many, many numbers – huge numbers, I should add (courtesy to Paulos who enjoys throwing huge numbers at us). Basically, the distance between a life supporting star and its closest neighbor is 500 light years, which happens to be ten BILLION times the distance between the earth and the moon. And the silly little innumerate wonders why the little green people don’t visit us from other galaxies. The thing is, if life forms did happen to spread uniformly across the galaxy once every, say, 12-15 million years, the distance between a life supporting star and its closest neighbor jumps to more than 2,000 light years. And anyway, if life were to form in our galaxy, it’s highly doubted that they’d be interesting in sharing thoughts with us, since they’d be something that we wouldn’t be able to communicate with, because the life would be some form of gas or large plains of potato-like beings.
Shomir U.
In this chapter, my favorite example of those who believe in the pseudoscience without even knowing are those who believe in faith healers.The evidence for these people is the fact that some people are healed from their illness and they believe that the faith healer has done it. John Allen Paulos states that these healers just happen to take an advantage on the people whom are ill. They do this by waiting for the patient to be in a worse enough situation, where the faith healer can do some random dance or something of that sort and either have gained credit for the patient getting better, gain credit for stopping the patients illness, or claim that the patient was to late in coming to the healer. No one can actually have real evidence for summoning some divine intervention to stop a persons illness, that person must be some one educated and experienced e.g. doctors,physicians, medical experts who can prove what they are doing.
Amanda Z.
In innumeracy Paulos uses the following example of pseudoscience in which I found to be very interesting: If President Reagan believes that Copenhagen is in Norway, and we know that Copenhagen is the capital of Denmark; it doesn’t mean that President Reagan thinks that the capital of Denmark is located in Norway. This is one of the many cases where the certainties of mathematics is misused because the basis of the problem is oversimplified, misstated, or simply taken out of context. In that case, substitutions which may be sensible in any other form may fall flat and prove to be completely incorrect. By substituting the fact that Copenhagen is the capital of Denmark, we have interpreted that Mr. Reagan thinks that the capital of Denmark is located in Norway, which may not be the case, for the information given states only that he thought Copenhagen is in Norway. Paulos believes that “Innumeracy and pseudoscience are often associated, in part because of the ease with which mathematical certainty can be invoked to bludgeon the innumerate into a dumb acquiescence.”
Clara S.
An example of pseudoscience, given by John Allen Paulos in this chapter, is predictive dreaming. The believers of predictive dreaming back it up with parapsychological abilities. Paulos explains that these dreams are "more rationally accounted for by coincidence." I suppose real evidence for such a phenomenon would include testing a large amount of people(ideally the whole world) and recording their dreams for a year. Then seeing if their predictions come true the next day. This would take a long time, but if the majority of people tested proved the science true, then we would have accurate data and results.
Joey B.
I chose the "famous" case of Clever Hans, the horse who could count. I believe that this was ignorance on the part of the trainer making the claim and the crowds being gullible to such nonsense. I think the people thought that if babies with untrained minds could learn to count, why couldn't smart animals like horses that can play pranks on people learn to count as well? I see the trainers mistake, and with a little bit of real science they could have observed that the horse was not looking at the dots on the dice when it fell, but at the trainer (who was looking right back at him). I might have believed the trainer if he let me examine the horse with sense and real science, and it actually came out to be factual. This, however, does not mean that only what can be proved is real. Recent studies show that gravity is actually these little things, smaller than sub-atomic particles. Nobody in the time of Newton would have believed that, but it is fact.
Sergio G.
Evidence to a believer of Pseudosciences can come in many kinds. One would be various people's eyewitness reports of little green men, most probably daydreaming that has been exaggerated to the nth degree, or a person looking for attention finding an easy way to do so.
John A. Paulos says believing in UFOs is fine, as long as one keeps their names in the original context: "Unidentified Flying Objects", as where people may think it is a word in itself, synonymous with "Spaceship" or any such term. He says that of course there are extraterrestrials at any given time, for the universe, and even the Milky Way, is so enormous the chances of us being the only beings to evolve yo such a degree are infinitesimal. John A. Paulos mentions the fact that there are over 100 Billion (10^11) stars in the Milky Way, from which 1/10th are in star systems capable of supporting life. Again only 1/10th of the systems would have Suns large enough to keep a planet in living conditions. Now we are down to 10 million (10^7) stars, of which 1/10- 1 Million, have already developed life.
In the Milky Way, 1 million stars would be on average 100 million (10^8) Light years from any other star, which would take centuries or millennia to travel to travel through with even the fastest vessels, and then we have to multiply the chances of life growing by how long their average lifespan is, how far they have evolved, HOW they have evolved- are they big clouds of Nitrogen? Little green men? Planet-sized, singing Beasts a la Lovecraft? Spatial Moss? The chances are infinite, but the chances that they can get to us- that they are little green men- the chance that they are INTERESTED in us are so small it's not even worth thinking about it.
Of course, if any of those found us interesting, then it might be possible for those UFOs to be truly Aliens in their little Spaceships, but they'd have no reason to hide themselves, to disappear at every chance, etc.
In chapter three, i believe that the psuedoscience that he is talking about is one of relevance. when people do not pay attention to actual variables that the are doing the permutations with. As a result the we get answers to questions that would add up mathematically. However when you add the actual variables the outcome is almost completely ilogical. My favorite example of this kind of innumeracy is the example of two cups of water and one cup of water to one cup of popcorn. this amused me a little because of the simple fact that when you add two groups of who things together you will get one new whole thing that is considered double the amount of the original object. now this is normal, but waht about when you add two things that are completely different object wise. this is where the popcorn comes into the equation. one whole cup of popcorn plus one whole cup of water just equals soggy popcorn. this is interesting because the two items were different, therefore there could not be any possible way that there could be two wholes of anything. Just one combination of both, which in this case happens to be soggy popcorn.
Damaris F.
In chapter 3, pseudoscience is described as "fake science." A widespread example of pseudoscience is astrology- as seen in "Li' Ol' Me and the Stars'." According a 1986 poll, 52% of American teenagers believe in the horoscopes, and all those books regarding the zodiac signs. Astrology describes how the gravitational attraction of the planets at one's birth has some sort of effect on one's personality. However, John Allen Paulos does not believe astrology because (1) No physical or neurophysiological meachanism through which a gravitational attraction is supposed to occur is ever explained. (2)The gravitational pull of the person far outwights that of the planet(s) involved. A gravitational force exerted on a body is proportional to the object's mass but inversely proportional to the square of the distance of the object from the body.
However, there is no correlation between the date of one's birth and scores on any standard personality test. Experiments were performed by a university that tested to see if astrologers picked the correct personalty profile for their clients after knowing only their zodiac sign. But the astrologers were only able to pick the correct client 1/3 of the time. Secondly, if one looks at the birthdates of famous scientists, mathematicians, and artists in general, one will realize that their birth dates are spread throughout the year. This means that birth dates have nothing to do with one's personal talents or possible grand achievements one will commit during their life. And lastly, after looking through 3,000 married couples records, one realized that there was no correlation between compatible pairs of signs and those couples that were actually married.
Real-evidence that would favor astrology is if one noticed an actual correlation. This means if more couples with compatible pairs of signs actually got married; and if personality zodiac profiles described the person in real life.
Lastly, I find it weird how in such an advanced society where there is so much literature, learning, and advanced studies thus far, some people still believe in the unintelligent methods of the Horoscope. Its absurd. In my opinion, horoscopes are meant for less developed civilizations and shouldn't be taken seriously.
BrooksR
Pseudoscience is essentially a trademark of faux belief. It is a way of explaining what an innumerate cannot possibly explain without fully understanding very simple and basic mathematical principal. Chapter 3 of Innumeracy clearly delineates these misconceptions. For instance, Clever Hans, a horse that could seemingly count fooled a profusion of inexperienced onlookers. When its trainer threw a pair of die, the horse was able to tap that number with his hooves. The inexperienced onlookers overlooked even the fact that horses do not perceive shapes as we do. They simply cannot comprehend the relationship between shape and size in the same way we do. The only way they interpret shape is by knowing at what point they should perform such a trivial act as jumping over some wooden bar. It turns out, the only thing the horse was unusually adept at was reading his owner's reactions very well. When the owner made a sudden, yet furtive movement, the horse was able to understand that he was to stop.
Paulos understands why people are inclined to believe almost unimaginable feats such as the one with the horse. He reasons that because they do not know any better, or are unable to think of any flaws in the experiment, they must content themselves just within the realm of what they think.
Real compelling evidence would be if the horse could tap out the number of die if its owner was not present and another onlooker were to toss the die. It is also a good piece of evidence if the owner moved suddenly before or after the number of the die was tapped out. Or, the third compelling piece of evidence would be if the owner did not suddenly move at all and see if the horse would stop of its own accord or keep on going endlessly without any notion of what transpires around it.
Munesh S.
Paulos states in his book that innumercy and pseudoscience are often associated. He gave an example of how a pseudoscience person would understand a situstion. he states that if one would add one and one, the sum would be two, but if one adds on cup of water and one cup of popcorn, the outcome will not be two cups of soggy popcorn. Paulos states that if one's model or one's data are no good, the conclusions that follow would not be either. He's trying to sstate the one must specify the data as much as possible.
In chapter three “Innumeracy” written by John Allen Paulos pseudoscience is described. For different types of this “fake science” there are different forms of evidence suitable to prove it. For example the belief that one is physic because a dream of theirs came true. Paulos and I both agree that this occurrence is nothing more than a coincidence. In life this happens in 3.6% of the people who dream, every year. One way to test this would be to basically or every persons in the world dreams for a set time such as year. However even this would be hard as some people don’t remember their dreams until it possible happens.
-monika c.
Kelly Y.
A person who believes the pseudoscience would confuse a conditional statement. If A, then B.The converse of that would be If B, then A.Another version of it is if X cures Y, then lack of X must cause Y. Not much people make this mistake because this situation is more familiar.John Allen Paulos was saying that if some drugs relieves the symptoms of some disease, it doesn't mean that excess or lack of that drug cause the disease. It is like saying "since aspirin sures headaches, lack of aspirin in the bloodstream must cause them." Choosing another situation that is interchangeable can be use with the evidence.Another situaition can be like you smells iff you didnt take a shower.
Bix W. . .
Pseudoscience, as described by John Allen Paulos, is a semblance of science which many people take to be real science because of the slight similarities. My favorite example of pseudoscience is one associated with logic. Pat Robertson says that he can't prove that there are not Soviet missile bases in Cuba and therefore there might be. The idea that one can prove something with the lack of proof against it is pseudoscience. John Allen Paulos says that this makes no sensebecause if it were true then one could say that there might be a race of dolphin people who live in the center of the earth with Elvis and 2Pac because they can't prove that it's not true.
Pseudoscience is a "fake science" and something an innumerate person would not understand. An example of pseudoscience astrology. John Allen Paulos suggest that innumerate people believe in astrology. Astrology is that the gravitational pull of the planets at the time of one's birth has something to do with your personality.
Innumerate people believe this, because they don't understand mechanism and think the science behind this is true. Also the predictiosn are vague so any small instance related to this may seem like it came through. John Allen Paulos states that astrology is hard to believe, because no physical or neurophysiological mechanism through which gravity pulls is ever explained or talked about. Also the gravitational pull of an obstetrician far outweighs that of the planet or planets. Since there many experiments done wiht astrology and they mostly failed there is no correlation between the date of one's birth and the scores on a personality test.
One example of pseudoscience is the instance of the number 666. According to Christians, this number has the numerical value of the Beast of the Apocalypse, and so is associated with the Antichrist. The name of Nero, the Roman emperor who first began persecuting Christians, had this numeric value, so perhaps there was some logic to the idea. However, Martin Luther's roman name (the monk, not the activist Martin Luther King) also equaled 666, giving a Catholic writer reason to proclaim him the Antichrist. Martin Luther's supporters countered by pointing out that "Vicar of the Son of God," the words inscripted in the Papal crown also equals 666. This persecution even continues today, as each word in Ronald Wilson Reagan's name has six letters. Of course, it is sheer lunacy to imply that someone is naturally evil judging by their name alone. Numerology is an inexact science, nay, not even a science, but an excuse for right-wing Christians to point fingers. The only way this theory could possibly be true is if everyone whose name ever had to do with the Number of the Beast turned out to be evil.
Louis L.
John Corey M.
A psuedoscience is literally a fake science. The must common example of a psuedoscience is astrology. A fake science that determines a persons life based on their birth date and the arrangement of stars. This cannot be proved with math and/or and natural evidence. If it could be proved with something creible and not based false theory with no evidence then maybe it could be consided a "realo"science vs. a psuedoscience.
An example on Pseudoscience is the example where the man beleives the horse can count when he holds up a number and the horse taps its foot corresponding to the number. A Pseudoscientist the evidence is the horse tapping a number of times corresponding to the number given. John Allen Paulos says that the horse is just taping its foot until the person that gave the number is satisfied. Real evidence would be the tapping when the person who gave the number didnt show any reaction or any hints.
Earl J. Chapter 3 of Innumeracy was a very interesting selection to read because of the amusing everyday examples. I personally enjoyed the reference to horoscope and aspects of religion because these are very widespread pseudosciences. It seems that people tend to believe in these topics because of the fact tat they are not generally falsifiable, and the small amount of positive outcomes is more emphasized than the large but discredited amount of disproving occurrences. John Paulos says that, although they are not falsifiable, one should not believe in pseudosciences because they are largely unprovable as well. In fact, viable evidence would in most cases be something that can be proved by mathematical reasoning, or examination, or trial-and-error. Thus, people who believe in pseudosciences are considered innumerate because of the logical reasons that make it seem almost foolish to do so.
In the third chapter of the book Innumeracy, one of my favorite examples in the chapter was when they had 116 clients and they took their personalities via questionnaire, and then the doctors took the personalities they liked the best. Then they found that the horoscopes were all scattered around, and for people that are married, there was no pattern between the married couples. I found this really interesting because I believe in horoscopes, and half the time they come true (or at least halfway) and after reading this, I felt really innumerate about this because it is really hard to argue with numbers.
Grissel G.
My favorite example from the text is that on page 71 that speaks of the phenomenon of ESP. ESp is defined, in the book, as communication without any normal sensory mechanism. There is no way to prove ESP, however, people fall for the pseudoscience anyway. ESP is often tested with a series of true-false answers. Correct answers often draw more attention than wrong guesses, which could explain why so many people believe in ESP today. The only way to test the existence of ESP is by statistical test. This would require running enough trials to come up with a statistic that is much to large for anyone to doubt the existence of ESP.
Evan Y.
My favorite example in chapter 3 is about a cup of popcorn added with a cup of water not making two cups. One might assume that because each is a cup then combined they should be two cups. However they are wrong. Though adding the weight of equal things makes it twice the weight of either, this does not always pertain with measures. The water will be absorbed by the popcorn as well as fitting in the spaces between kernels. Because of this, adding a cup of water and a cup of popcorn does not make two cups. An acceptable piece of evidence proving this would be performing an experiment by mixing a cup of water and a cup of popcorn.
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